Social Media Cover Art

Because we are near the middle of the season, we decided to do something special for the match of the week. Instead of looking at an individual match up, we will, instead, look at 26 different matches taking place this week and try to correctly predict as many of them as possible.

There are a few things to point out. All matches will have teams with complementary predicted win percentages. This is because we compare the teams head-to-head when generating the predictions. A closely predicted match does not necessarily mean that the match will go to 5 sets, or be closely contested, but it simply represents a team’s statistical chance of winning. Home court advantage is factored into our analysis allowing us to more accurately predict home and road games.


We found a few points of interest when we ran all of the data that we would like to address. The first point is how closely last year’s championship rematch between Lewis and Loyola, match 1, is predicted to be. As the match predicted to be the closest this week, both teams are within two percentage points of 50%, which would indicate that both teams were perfectly matched. With this match happening on Tuesday, it provides a chance to watch a good volleyball match early in the week.


Second, the match that showed the greatest variation for possible outcomes was match 20, Princeton vs. Sacred Heart. While Princeton was predicted to win, one variation of our analysis predicted Sacred Heart as heavy favorites. This goes to indicate the extra level of uncertainty surrounding a match already predicted to be very close. Third, the chance for the greatest upset comes from Penn State vs. Charleston in match 12. Penn state is predicted to win by a staggering 99.7%. While a tall task for Charleston, this would be a tremendous win for their program.


Finally, the match between the two highest rated teams in the AVCA Coaches Poll is between No. 4 Hawaii and No. 1 Long Beach State in Hawaii, only represented in match 3 even though they play twice this week. Hawaii has had plenty of time to rest and prepare as their last game was played on February 16th, 8 days before their first match on Wednesday of this week. Long Beach is currently the unanimous number one and looks to stay atop the polls. While Long Beach State is predicted to win, it isn’t a sure thing as they have a 60% predicted win percentage compared to Hawaii’s 40%. These two matches between two highly ranked teams will definitely be a highlight of this week.

Everything said, it looks like a great week for volleyball and we can’t wait to see what happens. Make sure to check out our rally of the week from last week, shown below, and follow our other posts here on our blog.


Corley Bagley

Corley Bagley

Director of Analytics


  • An Open Letter From Giuseppe Vinci

    An Open Letter From Giuseppe Vinci

    An open letter to VolleyMetrics family and friends—and every person out there with a passion. Today is a big day for all of us: VolleyMetrics signed a formal agreement to be acquired by Hudl, the global leader in sports video and analysis. As formal as our announcement may sound, this was a very natural decision once I saw how a partnership with Hudl could increase our ability to improve the …
  • Men’s Conference Tournament Breakdowns

    Men’s Conference Tournament Breakdowns

    This past week, the MPSF and the MIVA started their conference tournaments, and now, the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will begin theirs. For this blog post, we will break down some analysis for the four teams in each of these conferences, as well as each team’s probability in winning their conference tournament. We will also include the VolleyMetric ratings on each team. Note that the team that is bolded is …
  • Men’s Match of the Week 15 & MPSF/MIVA 1st Round Predictions

    Men’s Match of the Week 15 & MPSF/MIVA 1st Round Predictions

    This week, the MPSF and the MIVA will begin their tournaments, while the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will finish their last week of the regular season. Long Beach State and BYU are the top two teams in the MPSF, while Ohio State and Lewis are the top teams in the MIVA. We have displayed the ratings for each team in each of these tournaments, as well is their first round …
  • Match of the Week – Week 14

    Match of the Week – Week 14

    This will be the last Match of the Week for the regular season, as most teams are finishing up their season this week. As we look at the AVCA rankings, Long Beach State is the new number one team in the country following Ohio State’s lost to Penn State earlier last week. It’ll be interesting to see how things finish up this week and how seeding will work out going …
  • Analysis Shows an Increase of Serves Leads to a Higher Win Percentage

    Analysis Shows an Increase of Serves Leads to a Higher Win Percentage

    In the last few weeks, our statisticians at VolleyMetrics have been analyzing matches and trying to find a skill or stat that is highly correlated to winning a match. We’ve analyzed attacking efficiency, side out percentage, and many others, but they have finally found the highest correlation: serving. Serving is one of the most basic skills in volleyball. Every point begins with a serve, and teams can get a big …