Last week was filled with upsets! The polls changed so much that only 2 teams remained in the same spot as the previous week. This week is no different. We will be featuring two matches that have huge implications on conference standings and the AVCA polls: North Carolina @ Florida State and Nebraska @ Penn State. In the ACC, Florida State and North Carolina are both 11-1 in conference play and each have three losses overall. Nebraska is first in the Big 10, while Penn State is third, but a loss from either team will have a big impact on the overall standings. Let’s see how each team matches up:

screen-shot-2016-11-01-at-4-59-09-pm                                                                screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-8-17-13-am

Earlier this season, Florida State lost to North Carolina 3-0, but our predictions show a different outcome this time around. Aside from serving, where Florida State has the advantage, both teams compare well, but the home court advantage will be big for Florida State. It is important to note that Florida State’s three losses have come from top 10 ranked schools (Minnesota, Florida, North Carolina), while North Carolina has lost to two unranked opponents, one of which came last week. Our predictions show Florida State with a winning chance of 58.36-41.64.

The other matchup will take place on Penn State’s home court, where the Nittany Lions are 10-1. Although Penn State is on a 3 game losing streak, we predict they will bounce back and upset the #1 team in the country. Both teams have the exact same overall rating, but Penn State has the slight advantage in attacking and blocking. Our predictions have Penn State defeating Nebraska with a winning percentage of 57.74-42.26.
Watch these games this week and see how our predictions turn out:
Nebraska @ Penn State, Friday 11/4
North Carolina @ Florida State, Sunday 11/6



Corley Bagley

Corley Bagley

Director of Analytics


  • An Open Letter From Giuseppe Vinci

    An Open Letter From Giuseppe Vinci

    An open letter to VolleyMetrics family and friends—and every person out there with a passion. Today is a big day for all of us: VolleyMetrics signed a formal agreement to be acquired by Hudl, the global leader in sports video and analysis. As formal as our announcement may sound, this was a very natural decision once I saw how a partnership with Hudl could increase our ability to improve the …
  • Men’s Conference Tournament Breakdowns

    Men’s Conference Tournament Breakdowns

    This past week, the MPSF and the MIVA started their conference tournaments, and now, the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will begin theirs. For this blog post, we will break down some analysis for the four teams in each of these conferences, as well as each team’s probability in winning their conference tournament. We will also include the VolleyMetric ratings on each team. Note that the team that is bolded is …
  • Men’s Match of the Week 15 & MPSF/MIVA 1st Round Predictions

    Men’s Match of the Week 15 & MPSF/MIVA 1st Round Predictions

    This week, the MPSF and the MIVA will begin their tournaments, while the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will finish their last week of the regular season. Long Beach State and BYU are the top two teams in the MPSF, while Ohio State and Lewis are the top teams in the MIVA. We have displayed the ratings for each team in each of these tournaments, as well is their first round …
  • Match of the Week – Week 14

    Match of the Week – Week 14

    This will be the last Match of the Week for the regular season, as most teams are finishing up their season this week. As we look at the AVCA rankings, Long Beach State is the new number one team in the country following Ohio State’s lost to Penn State earlier last week. It’ll be interesting to see how things finish up this week and how seeding will work out going …
  • Analysis Shows an Increase of Serves Leads to a Higher Win Percentage

    Analysis Shows an Increase of Serves Leads to a Higher Win Percentage

    In the last few weeks, our statisticians at VolleyMetrics have been analyzing matches and trying to find a skill or stat that is highly correlated to winning a match. We’ve analyzed attacking efficiency, side out percentage, and many others, but they have finally found the highest correlation: serving. Serving is one of the most basic skills in volleyball. Every point begins with a serve, and teams can get a big …