This past week, the MPSF and the MIVA started their conference tournaments, and now, the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will begin theirs. For this blog post, we will break down some analysis for the four teams in each of these conferences, as well as each team’s probability in winning their conference tournament. We will also include the VolleyMetric ratings on each team. Note that the team that is bolded is the host team in the tournament.

MPSF Tournament Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Long Beach 6.26 7.69 6.16 6 5.87 7.06 6.38 6.2 63.33%
#3 Hawaii 3.6 7.82 6.1 6.08 5.78 6.78 6.34 6.19 19.79%
#2 Brigham Young 8.22 7.34 6.07 5.82 5.64 6.86 6.32 6.23 10.79%
#4 UC Irvine 6.24 7.54 5.85 5.72 5.72 6.88 6.31 6.26 6.10%

For the MPSF tournament, you have four of the top six teams in the country. In all reality, any of the remaining teams could potentially win the tournament since they are some of the best teams in the country, but as we ran our head to head analysis, it looks like the host team, Long Beach State, has the best odds of winning. This makes sense, as they are the best team in the country. One interesting thing to note here is the the number three seed, Hawaii, has a better chance of winning the MPSF tournament than BYU. BYU swept Hawaii in two matches this season, but without the home court advantage, our analytics predict that Hawaii will come on top in this match up.

MIVA Tournament Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Ohio State 7.71 7.66 6.26 6.46 5.79 5.91 6.38 6.17 86.82%
#2 Lewis 2.91 7.45 5.73 5.99 5.64 6.79 6.21 6.18 7.88%
#5 Ball State 3.94 7.79 5.46 5.94 5.92 6.45 6.24 6.14 4.55%
#3 Grand Canyon 4.22 7.35 5.34 5.88 5.42 6.4 6.13 6.19 0.75%

In the MIVA tournament, we can see that Ball State was already able to pull off an upset early in the tournament as they defeated Loyola, but as we look at the current four teams, it doesn’t look like there will be anymore upsets. Ohio State, the host team, has a remarkably high chance of 86.82% to win the MIVA tournament. They are looking to win their second straight MIVA tournament and get a first round bye in the NCAA tournament. One thing to note is that #5 Ball State has a lot higher of a chance to win than #3 Grand Canyon. As we compare these team’s ratings, you can see that Ball State has the advantage in every skill. Ball State even swept Grand Canyon earlier this year in a match up, and then lost a close match 2-3.

EIVA Tournament Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Penn State 7.51 7.63 5.4 6.06 5.86 6.2 6.13 5.9 66.32%
#3 Sacred Heart 2.1 7.96 5.23 6.05 5.74 6.42 6.18 6.11 25.71%
#4 Princeton 5.56 7.6 5.5 5.44 5.31 5.24 6.06 6.09 4.39%
#2 Saint Francis 2.28 7.5 5.18 5.63 5.52 5.1 6.05 6.2 3.57%

For the EIVA tournament, only four teams make it, so the semifinals are technically the first round. Princeton and Sacred Heart were able to win important matches towards the end of the season to sneak into the tournament, while Penn State and and Saint Francis were able to put together very good seasons to comfortably make it in as the number one and two seeds. With the exception of last year and in 1998, Penn State has won every EIVA tournament in the past seventeen years, and this year, it looks like they will add to that impressive resume with the help of Senior outside Chris Nugent and Freshman opposite Calvin Mende. In our ratings, Sacred Heart is the best team out of these four, so you can’t count them out of it. In their only match against Penn State, Sacred Heart swept Penn State. We will see how home court plays in an advantage if these two teams are able to meet in the championship game. Sacred Heart has the best chance of winning their tournament aside from any host team in the four conferences.

Conference Carolinas Tournament Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Barton 7.41 7.53 5.92 6.13 5.99 5.24 6.17 5.92 84.30%
#2 King 7.51 7.63 5.4 6.06 5.86 6.2 6.13 5.9 10.32%
#3 Mount Olive 7 7.71 5.18 5.28 5.96 5.09 6.07 6 3.67%
#4 Limestone 5.91 7.71 5.01 5.35 6.01 5.51 6.03 5.92 1.71%

The Conference Carolinas began their tournament on Tuesday, and all four top seeds were able to advance to the semifinals. Barton will have the home court advantage throughout the tournament as the number one seed. This is the first year that the winner of the Conference Carolinas will have an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament, and it looks like Barton will be the team to advance, as they have an 84.3% chance to win the Conference Carolinas tournament. King University led the NCAA with the most wins this season and actually split matches with Barton this season, with both matches needing five sets to find a victor. So although both teams are very similar, Barton has a slightly better overall rating, and with the home court advantage, they should be able to win the Conference Carolinas and move on to the NCAA tournament.

All of these matches will be played this weekend, so see how our predictions hold up and find out which teams will clinch a spot in the NCAA tournament, and which teams will be ending their season early.


Corley Bagley

Corley Bagley

Director of Analytics


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