This week, the MPSF and the MIVA will begin their tournaments, while the EIVA and Conference Carolinas will finish their last week of the regular season. Long Beach State and BYU are the top two teams in the MPSF, while Ohio State and Lewis are the top teams in the MIVA. We have displayed the ratings for each team in each of these tournaments, as well is their first round win prediction at the very bottom of the page. For this post, we will focus on a first round match up in the MPSF tournament between #4 UC Irvine and #5 UCLA.

This will be the third match up between these two teams. At the beginning of the season, UCLA swept UC Irvine in Los Angeles, but later on in the season, UCI defeated the Bruins 3-2 on their home court. Both teams have played particularly well towards the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see how this match plays out. Below, we have a table to show the VolleyMetric Ratings between these teams and the match prediction:

VolleyMetrics Ratings
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#4 UC Irvine 6.24 7.54 5.85 5.72 5.72 6.88 6.31 6.26 56.93%
#5 UC Los Angeles 7.37 7.69 5.9 5.97 5.75 6.78 6.36 6.23 43.07%
League Overall 4.57 7.51 5.31 5.83 5.68 5.89 6.13 6.14

 

From our ratings, you can see how each team performs in each skill. Both teams are performing better than the league average in almost every category. UCLA has the slight advantage on each skill except for setting, and UC Irvine has the advantage on strength of schedule. As we run our predictions and implement the home court advantage, UC Irvine is predicted to win the match with a win percentage of 56.93%. Although they are predicted to win, our predictions have this match up being close, so this game could go either way. Below we have some more breakdowns between the teams.

You can see a lot of similarities between these teams from these breakdowns as well as the ratings. In the overall scoring, both teams score similarly to each other. One thing to note is UCI scores 56% of their points from kills, which is one of the highest in the country. UCLA on the other hand, scores 10% of their points from block stuffs and they have a high block rating, so they could potentially limit UCI on their points from kills. In the points breakdown, UCLA has a slight advantage over UC Irvine, but both teams point score and side out very well. This game will be played this Saturday so be to watch this match, as well as other matches happening in the MPSF and MIVA tournaments.

 




Here are the predictions for each first round match in the MPSF and MIVA tournaments.

MPSF Tournament First Round Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Long Beach 6.26 7.69 6.16 6 5.87 7.06 6.38 6.2 93.78%
#8 Southern California 0.92 7.71 5.3 5.94 5.79 5.94 6.22 6.32 6.22%
#4 UC Irvine 6.24 7.54 5.85 5.72 5.72 6.88 6.31 6.26 56.93%
#5 UC Los Angeles 7.37 7.69 5.9 5.97 5.75 6.78 6.36 6.23 43.07%
#3 Hawaii 3.6 7.82 6.1 6.08 5.78 6.78 6.34 6.19 91.32%
#6 Pepperdine 4.71 7.28 5.53 6.16 5.41 6.99 6.21 6.25 8.68%
#2 Brigham Young 8.22 7.34 6.07 5.82 5.64 6.86 6.32 6.23 91.02%
#7 Stanford 2.31 7.45 5.32 6.41 5.67 6.12 6.2 6.24 8.98%

 

MIVA Tournament First Round Predictions
Team Serve Pass Attack Block Dig Set Overall SOS Win %
#1 Ohio State 7.71 7.66 6.26 6.46 5.79 5.91 6.38 6.17 99.45%
#8 Quincy 1.51 7.33 4.61 5.97 5.56 5.86 6.01 6.2 0.55%
#4 Loyola Chicago 5.76 7.6 5.43 6.3 5.68 6.12 6.25 6.19 83.32%
#5 Lindenwood 2.12 7.85 4.88 6.43 5.83 6.18 6.19 6.16 16.68%
#3 Grand Canyon 4.22 7.35 5.34 5.88 5.42 6.4 6.13 6.19 65.62%
#6 McKendree 3.38 7.47 5.25 5.47 5.46 6.72 6.12 6.22 34.38%
#2 Lewis 2.91 7.45 5.73 5.99 5.64 6.79 6.21 6.18 61.16%
#7 Ball State 3.94 7.79 5.46 5.94 5.92 6.45 6.24 6.14 38.84%

 

 

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Corley Bagley

Corley Bagley

Director of Analytics

VolleyMetrics

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